ISLAMABAD: The International Rescue Committee warned Tuesday that the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is likely much larger and more advanced than official figures indicate, as response efforts struggle with delayed detection and dangerously low levels of contact tracing.
According to World Health Organization data, Ebola is a rare but severe and often fatal illness in humans, with an average case fatality rate of around 50%, ranging from 25% to 90% in past outbreaks. The current outbreak involves the rare Bundibugyo virus strain, for which no approved vaccine or specific therapeutics currently exist, according to available epidemiological data.
The virus spreads through direct contact with broken skin or mucous membranes and bodily fluids of infected or deceased persons, and through indirect contact with contaminated surfaces or materials, according to WHO tracking. The incubation period is 2 to 21 days, with individuals not contagious until symptoms appear, per WHO guidelines.
With only 20% of contacts currently being traced, health authorities are struggling to identify and isolate new chains of transmission, according to the IRC. The virus may have been spreading undetected since before March, potentially as long as three months before the first official case was identified, allowing multiple chains of transmission to establish across communities and provinces, the IRC warned.
"The true scale of this Ebola outbreak is likely far worse than official figures suggest," said Rachel Howard, Senior Technical Emergency Health Adviser at the IRC. "When four out of five contacts are not being traced, it becomes incredibly difficult to contain the outbreak or even understand its true scale. We're especially concerned about the virus spreading to other countries like Burundi or South Sudan."
According to integrated epidemiological data, the total confirmed case numbers are 282 in the DRC and 9 in Uganda, with over 220 suspected cases under investigation. At least 42 confirmed deaths have been reported in the DRC and 1 in Uganda.
IRC teams report that shortages of diagnostic cartridges and testing backlogs are slowing case confirmation, further obscuring the true spread of the outbreak. Seven confirmed Ebola patients have reportedly left treatment centers in the DRC. More than six healthcare workers have died, including two doctors, in recent days.
People are avoiding health facilities, raising concerns that those affected are staying in their communities rather than seeking treatment. Without urgent funding, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.
The outbreak is increasingly resembling the 2018-20 North Kivu Ebola crisis, which infected thousands of people and was complicated by insecurity, population movement, and community resistance. However, unlike in previous outbreaks, when the Ervebo vaccine was deployed, there is currently no approved vaccine for this Ebola strain.
The IRC called for urgent international support to scale up contact tracing, surveillance, laboratory testing, treatment capacity, and community engagement efforts. In Uganda, the organization teamed up with the local health ministry on the border to support infection prevention and control activities, including screening people coming across the border.
