WASHINGTON: While Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of a long-awaited peace agreement, analysts urge “necessary caution,” warning that without addressing the core political questions of Palestinian sovereignty and statehood, the ceasefire risks becoming yet another short-lived truce.
The deal, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, includes a temporary pause in fighting, a swap of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The announcement sparked cautious optimism across global capitals, but also deep skepticism among regional experts interviewed by Pakistan TV Digital.
Canada-based decolonial scholar and activist Dr Sabreena Ghaffar said the euphoria surrounding the truce overlooks painful lessons from the past.
“In January, we saw a deal made and people rejoiced, but the bombardment didn’t stop,” she said, noting that over 30 Palestinians had been killed since the latest announcement. “Even now, airstrikes continue. Until the root causes are addressed, no ceasefire will hold.”
According to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, one of the deal’s key mediators, an immediate ceasefire must precede the agreement’s implementation to prevent further loss of life.
Arif Ansar, chief analyst at PolitTact, shared cautious optimism, saying, “A ceasefire at all costs saves lives.” But he emphasized that the underlying challenges, particularly disarmament and governance, could derail the process.
Under the agreement, Hamas and Israel have pledged to begin phased de-escalation. The October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack killed about 1,200 Israelis and resulted in 251 hostages. Israel’s military aggression in Gaza has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians and injured nearly 170,000, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, with roughly half of the casualties being women and children.
Dr Ghaffar noted that the agreement makes no mention of Hamas disarming.
“Hamas will disarm when there is a Palestinian state,” she stated, arguing that the demand for unilateral disarmament is unrealistic.
Ansar agreed, describing Hamas’s weapons as “an existential and ideological symbol of resistance.” Disarmament without a roadmap for statehood, he said, would be seen by Hamas as “total moral and political surrender.”
Analysts also expressed concern over reported plans for a foreign-led “Board of Peace” to administer Gaza.
“An externally imposed trusteeship, featuring figures like Tony Blair, will lack legitimacy and fuel resentment,” Ansar warned.
“Any unelected authority risks being branded a new occupation.” Dr Ghaffar added that Blair’s role would be “deeply problematic,” recalling his controversial record during the 2003 Iraq War.
Both experts stressed that true peace requires addressing fundamental political issues. Sovereignty, self-determination, and justice.
“Ignoring these in favor of reconstruction or investment-only deals turns peace into a real estate project,” said Ansar.
Dr Ghaffar concurred, describing Israel’s approach as “colonial and PR-driven,” warning that global opinion may be shifting but “not fast enough to save unarmed Palestinians.”
The analysts agreed that without confronting the legacy of occupation and ensuring accountability, any peace plan would be doomed to repeat history.
“The Oslo Accords failed for the same reasons,” said Ansar. “Key questions, statehood, refugees, Jerusalem, were postponed, and that ‘later phase’ never arrived.”
As the world cautiously welcomes the latest truce, regional observers insist the real test lies not in ending the violence, but in addressing the injustices that fuel it.
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