Islamabad: Political analyst Professor Adil Najam from Boston has described the emerging ceasefire between the United States and Iran as “clearly good news” for the world, noting that the situation had been escalating in highly dangerous ways.
Speaking on Pakistan’s TV programme Newsroom, he emphasised Pakistan’s pivotal role in facilitating dialogue, describing it as a structural positive change for the country’s international image.
He said the United States and Iran are motivated to negotiate partly due to economic and political pressures, including the impact on the global oil market, but cautioned that the situation remains highly fragile, particularly in its early stages.
“The next 48 to 72 hours are extremely important,” he noted, adding that the success or failure of this initial period will likely determine whether the ceasefire can evolve into a sustainable long-term arrangement.
“If we can hold firm in those three to four days, then I think the longer term becomes much more reliable,” he added, but stressed that deep mistrust remains a major challenge.
“I am still holding my breath because there’s a very real chance of a slip between the cup and the lip,” he said.
Professor Najam emphasised that the current ceasefire should be viewed as a starting point, not a final solution.
“The moment we are in is extremely important. This moment should be both celebrated and ensured that it leads to some sort of ceasefire,” he said, stressing the need for continued support from the international community.
The analyst also pointed to broader regional dynamics, noting that the conflict cannot be viewed in isolation.
“This is not just about the US and Iran… it has already turned into a regional and possibly even global issue that cannot be solved unless a whole lot of dots are resolved,” he said, referring to ongoing tensions involving Israel and the wider Middle East.
He pointed out that the crisis reflects a structural shift in global geopolitics, adding alliances are being re-evaluated, and countries in the Middle East will need to recalibrate strategies and priorities.
“Even after we resolve this… we will come to a new place, and everyone will be scrambling to figure out what that new place is,” Professor Najam added.
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