LAHORE: Gold is holding near $4,225 per ounce, and some of the world’s biggest financial institutions say the metal’s next move could be far more dramatic as attention increasingly shifts to the 2026 outlook.

Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Bank of America have all upgraded their outlooks, pointing to a structural shift in supply, geopolitical pressure and the likelihood of US rate cuts as forces that could push gold well past $5,000 by 2026.

The metal’s jump to nearly $4,400 in October raised questions about whether the rally had topped out. But major banks now argue the opposite.

“The October spike was not the peak,” one forecast notes. “It may be a preview of the trajectory ahead.”

Dollar weakens, fed cuts eyed

Gold’s strength comes even as markets churn. The US dollar fell to a two-week low, improving affordability for global buyers. Traders are now watching the Federal Reserve closely, with some betting on a rate cut as early as next week.

“Falling yields and a softer dollar create a powerful setup for gold,” one analysis says. “The market tone has shifted decisively.”

Lower interest rates tend to lift non-yielding assets such as gold, and banks say the dynamic is already visible in investor positioning.

Banks lift forecasts, cite structural drivers

Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450, with a bullish case of $4,950, citing persistent central-bank purchases and tightening physical supply. “We expect gold to remain well above $3,900,” the bank said, calling bullion “a resilient hedge in an era of prolonged uncertainty.”

Goldman Sachs, following a survey of 900 institutional investors, says sentiment is overwhelmingly positive. “The trajectory is clear, institutions overwhelmingly expect gold to keep rising,” the bank said.

According to the survey, 36% of respondents see gold above $5,000 by 2026, while another 33% expect it to land just under that level. More than 70% anticipate gains next year, with only 5% predicting a material pullback.

HSBC echoed the $5,000 view, pointing to geopolitical strain, heavy central-bank accumulation and rising ETF inflows. “When global uncertainty accelerates, the world seeks a hedge, and that hedge is gold,” the bank said in its latest outlook.

Bank of America expects an average 2026 price of $4,538, with highs at $5,000. “The numbers continue to stack in gold’s favor,” the bank said, highlighting supply tightness and a shift in institutional allocation strategies.

60% annual rally

Gold has surged nearly 60% this year, making it one of the strongest assets across global markets. Investors are leaning heavily on safe-haven positions as geopolitical tensions widen and inflation concerns linger.

At the same time, central banks, particularly in emerging economies, continue to add gold at a pace analysts describe as “structurally significant.”

ETF demand has also returned, reinforcing price support in a market where physical supply is thinning.

“Macro stress, supply constraints and renewed flows are painting a fundamentally bullish picture,” one bank said.

Higher for longer

Analysts say the forces driving gold higher are likely to persist: a weaker dollar, the prospect of rate cuts, structural central bank buying and geopolitical volatility. For global investors navigating elevated uncertainty, gold is again playing its traditional role as a stabilizer.

With major banks aligned around forecasts of $5,000 and beyond by 2026, the bullion rally appears far from over, and its strongest phase may still lie ahead.

Deutsche Bank

Gold seen surging beyond $5,000 by 2026 as global banks turn bullish