ISLAMABAD: After declaring in May that any future terror attack in India would be considered “an act of war”, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has left India constrained in responding to the recent Delhi blast, facing domestic and diplomatic pressures that analysts say reflect a trap of its own making, according to a report published by Al Jazeera.
On Nov. 10, a car blast in India’s capital resulted in 13 deaths and several injuries.
The Indian prime minister’s rhetoric, the report says, “limits how easily India can blame alleged perpetrators without raising expectations of a conflict with Pakistan.”
India was swift to blame Islamabad for the April Pahalgam incident, an attack on tourists which left 26 dead; Pakistan denied any involvement.
In May, the two countries were involved in an armed conflict that lasted four days before a ceasefire was reached.
‘Trap of one’s own creation’
The report highlights that “Modi’s comments drew a new red line and a low threshold for future military action against Pakistan.”
While the Indian cabinet has termed the Delhi blast "a terror incident," the government has so far avoided accusing any country of the incident. This is in contrast to the knee-jerk blame directed at Pakistan in the case of the Pahalgam incident in May.
According to the Al Jazeera report, “The low bar that Modi set for military action against Pakistan in the event of future attacks by armed groups means that naming Islamabad as responsible will automatically stir domestic expectations of an Indian military strike against its neighbor.”
On Modi’s rhetoric about “act of war,” the article quotes Ajai Sahni, executive director of the South Asia Terrorism Portal, as saying, “The Indian government painted itself into a corner – a trap of one’s own creation.”
‘Foolish position’
“With the declaration that an act of terror is an act of war and no elaboration on this doctrine, now they are confronting the consequences of what they say – a completely foolish position, not even a policy, that is short-sighted for political gains,” Sahni is quoted as saying.
Quoting analyst Michael Kugelman, the report says, “If the government comes out and declares this to be a terrorist attack, there would be significant pressure, both strategic and political, for India to do something big, to do something kinetic.”
Speaking about the role of Indian agencies, Sheikh Showkat, a political analyst, is quoted as saying in the article, “Blaming Pakistan has also been a way to shed one’s own accountability.”
“Whatever investigators find, India will be hampered in shaping its diplomatic and security response by its reaction” to the incident in April, the report quotes analysts as saying.
