How India’s $23 billion arms push challenges Pakistan’s nuclear threshold

ISLAMABAD: India has locked in weapons contracts worth over $23 billion in 2025 alone, acquiring advanced strike systems from the United States, France, and Russia while dramatically expanding indigenous military production.

This buildup represents the culmination of a four-decade doctrinal evolution away from total war toward limited operations deliberately sized below Pakistan's nuclear retaliation threshold.

The Ministry of Defense in New Delhi signed 193 contracts totaling ₹2.09 trillion ($23.28 billion) in the 2024-25 cycle, with domestic manufacturers securing 92% of orders under the "Atmanirbhar Bharat" self-reliance initiative, according to India's Press Information Bureau.

Four decades of doctrinal evolution
"This massive weapons enrollment reflects doctrinal shifts since 1971," said Dr Masood ur Rehman Khattak, assistant professor of international relations at International Islamic University Islamabad, whose doctoral research examined Indian military strategic thinking and its implications for South Asian deterrence stability.

"After India's offensive strategy in the 1970s — relying on two strike corps — and the Sundarji doctrine of the 1980s, which operationalized a third strike corps in 1990 to bisect Pakistan, Islamabad developed nuclear capability in the mid-1980s, making large-scale invasion strategically untenable," he said.

India's response to the 2001-02 parliament attack illustrated the problem: mobilizing 900,000 troops to Pakistan's border took 27 days, negating any element of surprise. This prompted the 2004 Cold Start doctrine, emphasizing rapid, limited warfare with division-sized forces of approximately 25,000 troops.

Pakistan's development of tactical nuclear weapons in 2011 specifically countered Cold Start, forcing another Indian doctrinal revision. The 2018 Land Warfare Doctrine (still in effect) reduced operational force levels to 5,000-7,000 troops and emphasized surgical strikes against high-value targets.

"The 2018 doctrine rests on two pillars," said Dr Khattak. "Limited war with forces small enough that Pakistan cannot justify a nuclear response, and punitive surgical strikes for any attack linked to Pakistan. The 2019 Balakot airstrike demonstrated this: India's doctrine demanded a response to Pulwama, regardless of electoral timing debates."

Acquisitions aligned with operational doctrine
The 2025 defense contracts directly support this strategy. India and the US renewed their 10-year Defense Framework Agreement on Oct. 31 during meetings between Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth in Kuala Lumpur.

Under the renewed framework, Washington approved $45.7 million in Javelin anti-tank guided missiles, $47.1 million in Excalibur precision-guided artillery shells capable of two-meter accuracy at 70-kilometer range, and 113 additional GE-F404 engines for Tejas fighters.

The $3.9 billion procurement of 31 MQ-9B Predator armed drones with 1,000-kilometer operational range remains scheduled for 2029 delivery. Negotiations advanced for six additional P-8I Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and co-production of Stryker infantry combat vehicles.

France and India signed a $7.6 billion Inter-Governmental Agreement in April for 26 Rafale Marine fighters equipped with SCALP cruise missiles offering 300-kilometer standoff range and HAMMER precision munitions. The aircraft will deploy aboard carriers INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya.

Russia continued deliveries of the S-400 Triumf air defense system, with three regiments now operational. Indian media reported the systems were utilized during border incidents in May and December. Moscow and New Delhi signed a $248 million contract in March for engines to upgrade India's T-72 tank fleet, including technology transfer for licensed domestic production.

Domestic production accelerated dramatically. State-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited received $6.98 billion for 156 Prachand light combat helicopters. The Defense Acquisition Council approved $28 billion in procurements covering the Nag Missile System Mk-II, BrahMos fire control systems, indigenous medium-altitude long-endurance drones, ground-based electronic intelligence systems, and naval surface guns.

Additional contracts finalized 307 Advanced Towed Artillery Gun Systems ($768.5 million), 425,000 close-quarter battle carbines ($308.5 million), and various ammunition types for Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket Launchers ($1.13 billion). The Cabinet Committee on Security approved development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft fifth-generation fighter program in May.

A coordinated warfare concept
The S-400's 400-kilometer engagement range creates effective air-denial zones that extend deep into Pakistani airspace, potentially grounding Pakistan's F-16 and JF-17 fighter fleets during a confrontation. The Rafale-SCALP combination enables strikes from standoff ranges beyond the reach of many air defense systems, minimizing pilot and aircraft exposure.

India's intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) architecture has matured considerably. GSAT-7 and other dedicated military satellites provide real-time information across all three services. Combined with Israel-supplied surveillance and kamikaze drones, India has developed comprehensive ISR coverage.

"The next warfare frontier is swarm drone attacks," Dr Khattak noted. "We saw this in the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Iran confrontations, and the Pakistan-India standoff in May. India is heavily investing in this domain, as they want the capability to strike deep into Pakistan using drones, so we cannot deploy aircraft, since downing manned aircraft is a costly business both financially and politically."

International strategic calculations
"Countries involved in strategic competition do not compromise on defense expenditure," said Dr Attiq ur Rehman, a defense analyst specializing in South Asian security, nuclear politics, and defense studies. "India has adopted a balanced policy with all great powers — receiving S-400 systems from Russia while maintaining US strategic partnership — positioning itself as an essential customer for nations seeking to constrain Chinese influence regionally."

Pakistan's strategic dilemma
The widening conventional capability gap places acute pressure on Pakistan's constrained $9 billion annual defense budget — less than one-tenth of India's $81 billion military spending.

Pakistan has relied primarily on Chinese military assistance (JF-17 Thunder fighters jointly produced with China, Type 054A frigates, and forthcoming PL-15 air-to-air missiles with 300-400 kilometer engagement range), but procurement volumes remain modest compared to India's acquisition scale.

"Pakistan doesn't want any form of war — conventional, limited, or otherwise — because our economy cannot survive it," Dr Khattak said. "But the conventional imbalance automatically forces Pakistan to rely more heavily on nuclear deterrence. If Pakistan experiences a conventional defeat anywhere, there will be immense pressure to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. This dynamic is extremely dangerous for the region."

The May 2025 standoff offered a real-world test of India's modernized arsenal — and revealed significant vulnerabilities. According to Pakistani military sources, Pakistan successfully targeted S-400 air defense positions, downed multiple surveillance drones, and breached forward operating bases.

"Despite India's superior and more expensive air defense systems, they could not stop Pakistan's missiles, aircraft, and drones," said Dr Khattak. "Pakistan's AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles proved highly effective, as demonstrated in 2019 when they downed India's MiG-21."

But Dr Khattak warned against complacency.

"India learned lessons from May. They're now focusing heavily on artillery with extended ranges — systems like Dhanush, ATAGS, and Vajra K9 that far exceed the 27-kilometer range of their older Bofors guns. They're adding capabilities systematically. Our conventional deterrence faces serious challenges, and if conventional deterrence is compromised, it places our nuclear deterrence under greater stress because Pakistan has explicitly linked the two."

Strategic ambiguity and nuclear escalation risks
The strategy creates dangerous instability in a densely populated region where both neighbors possess nuclear arsenals and a history of four wars since 1947. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine has historically focused on first-use options to offset India's conventional superiority. It is a strategic calculus that becomes increasingly precarious as the conventional imbalance widens and the threshold for nuclear employment potentially lowers.

India faces parallel strategic challenges with China along the disputed Line of Actual Control and in the Indian Ocean, where Beijing's expanding naval presence threatens Indian maritime dominance. "India has bigger challenges than Pakistan," Dr Khattak said. "The question is whether Pakistan and China, working closely together, can mitigate these challenges and create an effective strategic balance."

India's development of nuclear-powered submarines will provide assured second-strike capability, potentially emboldening New Delhi to pursue more aggressive conventional operations under the assumption that Pakistan would be deterred from nuclear first-use by the certainty of devastating retaliation. "This assured second-strike capability fundamentally changes calculations," Dr Khattak said. "India will be confident that Pakistan will confine itself to conventional warfare, which is precisely where India's advantages are most pronounced."

The 2025 acquisitions fundamentally alter South Asia's military equilibrium, enhancing India's ability to conduct extended operations deep inside Pakistani territory while maintaining defensive superiority along contested borders.

Whether this modernization creates strategic stability through credible conventional deterrence or increases nuclear escalation risks by cornering Pakistan into reliance on atomic weapons remains the central question confronting policymakers in both Islamabad and New Delhi, and with implications that extend far beyond the subcontinent.