ISLAMABAD: A generation ago, geopolitical analysts warned that the world's future conflicts would be fought over water rather than oil. "The wars of the new millennium would be fought over water," former World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin predicted in the mid-1990s. That warning appears increasingly relevant.
In April 2025, India announced that it was suspending its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement signed in September 1960 and brokered by the World Bank.
The treaty has survived three wars and numerous periods of political hostility between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, making it one of the world's most enduring international water-sharing agreements.
Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty governs the use of the rivers that flow from India into Pakistan through the Indus basin.
Under the agreement, the Western Rivers, the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, were allocated primarily to Pakistan, while the Eastern Rivers, the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, were allocated to India, with each country enjoying specified rights and obligations.
For Pakistan, the issue extends well beyond diplomacy.
The Indus River system is the country's primary source of irrigation, supporting its agriculture, food security, textile industry and significant portions of its energy generation.
Any prolonged disruption to these water flows would have profound economic, environmental and humanitarian consequences.
Matter of national security
Pakistan has also framed the issue in explicit national security terms.
Following a meeting of the National Security Committee on April 24, 2025, the Foreign Office stated that the Indus Waters Treaty is "a binding international agreement brokered by the World Bank and contains no provision for unilateral suspension."
The statement further declared that "Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs."
It warned that "any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power."
These statements underscore how disputes over water could become catalysts for broader military escalation between two nuclear-armed states. Even a limited conflict carries risks that extend far beyond South Asia.
The nuclear threat
Scientific research suggests that the consequences of a large-scale India-Pakistan nuclear exchange would not remain confined to the region.
In a study published in Science Advances, researchers model a scenario in which India uses 100 strategic weapons against urban centers and Pakistan responds with 150.
They estimate immediate fatalities of between 50 and 125 million people. The resulting fires could inject between 16 and 36 teragrams of black carbon into the atmosphere, reducing global sunlight by 20–35 %, lowering average global temperatures by 2–5C, decreasing precipitation by 15–30%, and disrupting agricultural productivity for more than a decade.
The study concludes that these climatic effects could threaten mass starvation and cause widespread collateral fatalities around the world.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty should therefore not be viewed merely as a bilateral disagreement between India and Pakistan.
It represents a challenge to one of the few international agreements that has historically insulated a critical shared resource from armed conflict.
Effective transboundary water governance
At a time when water scarcity is intensifying globally, preserving effective transboundary water governance is in the interest of the entire international community.
Given the World Bank's historic role in brokering the treaty, and the potentially far-reaching consequences of its collapse, there is a compelling case for renewed diplomatic engagement by the Bank and the broader international community to encourage dialogue, uphold treaty obligations, and reduce the risk of escalation.
The stability of the Indus basin is not only a regional concern; it has implications for international peace, food security and global stability.
