ISLAMABAD: Suspected insider trading linked to Iran war-related bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket generated nearly $2.4 million in profits with a 98%-win rate, according to a report by CBS News.
The report raised concerns over the growing use of prediction markets for wagering on military conflicts and geopolitical events, with analysts warning that insiders with access to sensitive information may be exploiting the platforms for financial gain.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to place bets on the outcome of world events using cryptocurrency. While all trades on the blockchain are publicly visible, users generally remain anonymous.
In a statement to CBS News’ “60 Minutes,” Polymarket said it has built a “comprehensive market integrity infrastructure” using artificial intelligence-powered surveillance and blockchain forensics to detect suspicious activity.
“When our systems identify suspicious activity, we act — including through referrals to law enforcement and cooperation with investigations,” the company said, adding that insider trading “is not welcome on Polymarket.”
The report highlighted the case of US Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly used the platform to place bets related to a special operations mission targeting former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
According to the US Justice Department, Van Dyke wagered roughly $34,000 on the operation, including several bets placed one day before the raid. Prosecutors allege he earned more than $400,000 before attempting to withdraw the funds and delete his account. He has pleaded not guilty to federal charges.
Investigators and analysts say military-related betting markets are particularly vulnerable to insider activity because many individuals involved in operations — including planners, intelligence officials and even family members — may gain access to sensitive information before it becomes public.
A separate study by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective examined large “long-shot” wagers on military events placed on Polymarket and found evidence of “systemic insider trading” in conflict-related betting markets.
The report also pointed to suspicious trading activity in traditional commodities markets linked to the Iran conflict.
New York lawyer and former commodities trader David Kovel told “60 Minutes” that more than $800 million was suddenly placed on a decline in oil prices on March 23, shortly before US President Donald Trump announced “productive” talks with Iran on social media.
Oil prices reportedly dropped more than 10% following the announcement, potentially generating tens of millions of dollars in profits for traders involved.
Federal investigators are reportedly examining the trades, although no charges have been filed so far.
The report also described threats against journalists whose reporting affected prediction market outcomes.
