ISLAMABAD: Six months after the United States and Israel opened their war against Iran, the conflict has developed an unusual pattern: Washington and Tehran are exchanging strikes, while Israel and Iran are largely avoiding direct attacks on each other.
Israel, meanwhile, remains engaged in Lebanon, where its forces are confronting Hezbollah. At the same time, Israeli military pressure and a humanitarian crisis continue in Gaza.
That raises an intriguing question: Has the original Israel-Iran confrontation effectively been divided into separate battlefields?
But Pakistan's former envoy in Washington, Ambassador Imran Ali, believes that Israel is still involved in US attacks against Iran.
"They (Israel) are very much partaking in the planning and other US activities to strike Iran," he explained while talking to Pakistan TV Digital.
"It will not be right to think that Israel is not interested in directly attacking Iran. They are very interested in hurting Tehran and doing so secretly."
From Israel-Iran war to US-Iran confrontation
The war began on Feb 28 with US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
But after months of escalation, a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire and the subsequent Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding produced a framework intended to halt large-scale fighting.
The arrangement also highlighted an unusual diplomatic reality.
Council on Foreign Relations expert Elliott Abrams noted in June that the US-Iran memorandum effectively left Israel “on the sidelines.”
Israel was not a party to the negotiations, while a mechanism dealing with Lebanon included the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar, but excluded Israel.
Israel briefly expressed its dissatisfaction in June when it struck Iran after Tehran launched missiles at Israel in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
But both sides quickly stopped firing after US President Donald Trump intervened.
Military historian Danny Orbach told an international news agency that Israel's action was partly a message to Washington that Israeli interests could not be excluded from negotiations with Tehran.
Imran Ali, who also served in Toronto, Barcelona and Arab countries during his diplomatic career, believed that Israel stopped attacking Tehran at the behest of Washington, which does not want this conflict to become an anti-Muslim war.
"If US-Iran peace negotiations fail, Israel will jump into the fray," added Imran Ali, explaining that Tel Aviv is keeping away from the war momentarily.
Why isn't Iran attacking Israel?
One explanation may be deterrence.
The Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project assessed this month that Tehran may be deliberately avoiding attacks on Israel because they could trigger another major Israeli response against Iranian infrastructure.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened attacks on Iranian infrastructure, including energy facilities, in response to any Iranian strike on Israel.
The war institute assessed that Tehran may prefer restraint to risking further economic damage and internal instability.
But Ambassador Imran Ali differs with these assertions, saying that Tehran is avoiding attacks on Israel because it does not want to open many fronts at a time.
"Iran is concentrating on creating an energy crisis which equally damages US and Israeli interests," further explained the ex-Pakistani diplomat.
He said that is the reason behind Iran attacking US bases in Arab countries and creating a tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel's war has moved to Lebanon
Israel has hardly become militarily inactive. Its focus has shifted heavily toward Hezbollah.
Israel announced last week that its forces had destroyed a two-kilometer Hezbollah underground complex at Ali al-Taher in southern Lebanon.
Israeli forces remain inside parts of southern Lebanon despite a June framework envisioning Israeli withdrawal alongside Hezbollah's disarmament.
More than 4,300 people have been killed and around 300,000 displaced in this year's Lebanon conflict, international news agencies reported this week.
Iran, however, has not responded to the latest Israeli operation with a direct major strike.
Analysts at Critical Threats say Iranian media instead downplayed the strategic importance of Ali al-Taher, potentially allowing Tehran to absorb Hezbollah's setback without committing itself to retaliation.
Israel may be quieter, not absent
The news website Axios reported this week that senior military commanders from the United States, Israel and eight Arab countries secretly met in Germany to discuss Iran and regional security. The meeting suggests Israel remains closely involved in the regional strategy surrounding Iran even when it is not directly bombing Iranian territory.
The emerging picture, therefore, is less a disappearance of Israel than a compartmentalization of the conflict: the United States confronts Iran directly; Israel pressures Hezbollah and secures its northern frontier; and Tehran calibrates its retaliation while trying to avoid another destructive Israeli campaign at home.