ISLAMABAD: The 2026 US midterm elections are shaping up to be a major test of President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda, as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress and Republicans fight to preserve their narrow majorities in both chambers.
Americans will vote on Nov 3 to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators, while 36 states will also hold gubernatorial elections.
Republicans currently hold a slim advantage in Congress, with a 219-214 House majority and a 53-47 Senate majority, according to recent election analysis. Meanwhile, Democrats need only three net gains to take control of the House, while they need four Republican-held Senate seats to secure a majority in the upper chamber, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Anyone's election
The House is widely viewed as particularly vulnerable for Republicans.
A news report said about 50 of the 435 congressional races are considered genuinely competitive, meaning small shifts in turnout or voter preferences could determine which party controls the chamber.
Several battlegrounds are drawing national attention, including races in Arizona, California, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Redrawing of electoral districts has further complicated the contest, with competing efforts by Republican- and Democratic-led states to redraw congressional boundaries ahead of the elections.
The Senate contest could prove even more consequential. Competitive races are emerging in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, among other states.
Analysts say that several of these contests remain close enough that either party could emerge with crucial victories.
Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has unexpectedly entered the battleground map.
Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton in a race that has attracted national attention, while Ohio and North Carolina are also hosting closely watched Senate contests.
Voters are focused on inflation, fuel prices, healthcare costs, tariffs and household affordability.
Republicans are highlighting tax cuts and their economic policies, while Democrats are making the cost of living a central argument against the Trump administration.
Focus on Trump
Trump remains at the center of the campaign despite not appearing on the ballot.
At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas this week, he urged supporters to treat the election as a referendum on his presidency and called for Republicans to maintain control of Congress.
Democrats, meanwhile, are also making Trump a central issue, hoping dissatisfaction with his administration will drive Democratic turnout.
Recent polling and voter-identification data indicate growing challenges for Republicans, although the election remains too close and geographically fragmented to predict with certainty, writes The Guardian in one of its articles.
Court battles
According to the Associated Press, legal battles over mail voting and federal authority over election procedures are already reaching the courts, raising concerns about voter access and ballot administration ahead of November.
The stakes extend beyond congressional legislation. A Republican-controlled Senate would give Trump greater freedom to secure confirmation of administration officials and judges, while Democratic control of either chamber could significantly constrain his legislative agenda.
With less than two months before Election Day, the 2026 midterms are therefore becoming a nationwide referendum on Trump’s presidency, the economy and the direction of US politics — with a handful of tightly contested races likely to determine the balance of power in Washington.