ISLAMABAD: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a major electoral challenge as Israel prepares to vote on Oct 27, with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot leading a fractured opposition that could prevent Netanyahu from forming another government.
Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party is projected to win more seats than Netanyahu's Likud, according to Israel Democracy Institute and Kan News surveys conducted in late August and early September. The campaign has focused on military strategy, compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Israelis and accountability for security failures surrounding the October 2023 attack.
How Israel's election works
Israel has a parliamentary system in which voters choose parties rather than a prime minister. The 120-member Knesset is elected through proportional representation. Parties must win at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter parliament, and a government needs support from at least 61 lawmakers. Parties below the threshold receive no seats.
Netanyahu's coalition is projected at 49 to 53 seats, 8 to 12 short of a majority, according to late-August and early-September surveys cited by the Israel Democracy Institute and Kan News. Those surveys project the opposition at 56 to 58 seats, making Arab parties potentially important to government formation.
Eisenkot's challenge
Eisenkot leads Yashar after serving as military chief from 2015 to 2019. A Channel 12 survey found 44% of voters considered him more suitable to be prime minister, compared with 34% for Netanyahu. His son and nephews died during the Israeli military siege of Gaza, according to his campaign and public statements about his family.
Yashar (meaning "honest") calls for greater accountability, an independent judicial commission into the October 2023 intelligence and military failures, an eight-year, two-term limit for prime ministers and military-service reform, according to the party's platform. It proposes limiting ultra-Orthodox "yeshiva" (Jewish seminaries) exemptions to 3% annually and cutting state funding for noncompliant institutions.
Eisenkot has ruled out a Palestinian state under his government, according to his campaign position, and says the opposition's largest party should lead an alternative government.
Netanyahu's position
According to the Times of Israel, Likud is projected to fall from 32 seats to 20 to 23. Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter's People of Israel party is projected at 4 to 6 seats, drawing support from Likud and allied far-right factions. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party has repeatedly polled near the 3.25% threshold, according to Kan 11.
Netanyahu opposes an independent judicial inquiry into the October 2023 attack failures and supports a politically appointed panel, according to the government's position. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir supports immediate West Bank annexation, expanded civilian firearm access and "Disengagement 710," his party's proposal for state-managed voluntary emigration of Gaza civilians. Smotrich supports accelerated Jewish settlement construction and restrictions on the attorney general's oversight authority.
Military-service dispute
Israel's Supreme Court has eliminated the legal basis for blanket yeshiva exemptions, according to court rulings, while state subsidies to seminaries have been frozen and travel and economic sanctions imposed on draft-eligible ultra-Orthodox men who refuse conscription.
Shas and United Torah Judaism, key Netanyahu coalition parties, demand legislation to protect their constituents from military service, according to statements the parties released.
Israel maintains compulsory military service for most Jewish and Druze citizens, while ultra-Orthodox Israelis have historically received exemptions for full-time religious study. The dispute pits demands for legal protection of exemptions against calls from secular and nationalist voters for universal service with zero exemptions.
A divided opposition
Bennett and Lapid have merged into B'Yachad, projected at 14 to 16 seats, while the Democrats party lead by Yair Golan, formed from Labor and Meretz factions, are projected at 8 to 10 seats and support including Arab parties in government. Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu is projected at 10 seats and demands zero religious exemptions. Blue and White, led by Benny Gantz, has suffered defections and is projected at zero seats, leaving it below the electoral threshold.
If no bloc wins 61 seats
If neither bloc reaches 61 seats, the Knesset could fail to confirm a prime minister and dissolve, leaving Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022, according to Israeli electoral records.
Yashar strategists are preparing for a possible minority government backed by 58 or 59 opposition lawmakers, relying on Arab abstentions or support during the swearing-in vote. Another possibility is a broad unity coalition involving centrist and moderate parties, with ultra-Orthodox parties detached from Netanyahu's alliance and far-right figures excluded.
Why Arab parties matter
The reunited Joint List, comprising Arab-majority parties Hadash, Ta'al and Balad, is projected to win 6 to 9 seats and demands an end to the military occupation and establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state, according to its political platform.
The United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to win 5 to 6 seats and favors possible coalition participation focused on funding and safety for Arab citizens, according to Abbas and party statements.
Netanyahu's record
Netanyahu served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 and has now spent 17 years in office, making him Israel's longest-serving leader, according to Israeli government records. His political position is shaped by Likud's strength, nationalist and ultra-Orthodox allies, smaller parties near the 3.25% threshold and the opposition's ability to coordinate.
The Oct 27 election will determine the 120-member Knesset, while coalition negotiations will determine whether Netanyahu, Eisenkot or another opposition leader can secure the 61 seats required to form the next government.